[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061613
SWODY1
SPC AC 061611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
HUF 15 NNE DNV SBN 20 NW AZO 20 SE GRR 15 W LAN 30 ESE LAN DTW 35 NE
FDY 35 SW CMH 30 NE LEX 25 SW LEX 40 N BWG 20 SSW OWB 25 WNW EVV 25
SW HUF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
JHW 15 NE PIT 45 WNW EKN 40 NW TRI 25 SW TYS 10 ENE MEI 40 ENE LFK
20 NW CLL 45 NW AUS 40 SE MAF 20 N INK 60 NNE ROW 30 W RTN 30 SW COS
35 SSW LIC 40 NNE LHX 45 SSE LAA 35 NNE CSM 35 SSW TUL 15 W VIH 35
NE PIA 15 E MKG 40 ESE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ART 15 ENE ACY
...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 15 NNW GDP 30 NNW ALM 10 SW SOW 35 NW GCN 70 W
DRA 40 NNW NID 50 NNE BFL 35 N MER 45 SSE RBL 30 SW SVE 40 ESE SVE
10 NW NFL 15 E U31 30 N U24 30 SW CAG 50 SE DGW AIA 25 W LBF 25 WNW
HLC 50 ENE DDC 10 NW ICT 15 NE EMP 30 N FNB 20 E OMA 30 NNW SUX 15
NW FSD 40 E ATY 10 SSE STC 65 NNE EAU 30 S ESC 105 ENE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW ISN 20 WNW MLS
30 ESE COD 30 W MQM 20 E S80 40 WNW GEG 15 ESE 4OM 40 N 4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF OH AND TN VALLEYS WWD
ACROSS MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...

...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES...
VIGOROUS MID-SUMMER TROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY MOVING INTO WRN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT WITH BAND OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD
AHEAD OF TROUGH ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN WI THIS AM WILL MOVE INTO LWR MI THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT MCS IN PLAINS HAS ABOUT DISSIPATED AS IT CROSSED MID MS
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING  WHICH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED STRONG HEATING
ACROSS OH VALLEY MUCH OF AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS TO LOW 70S RESULTING IN MUCAPES ABOVE 3000
J/KG.

REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR INITIALLY
VICINITY LWR OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY WHERE A VERY UNSTABLE WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS IS LOCATED. REF MCD 1542.

DURING THE AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP NRN OH
VALLEY INTO LWR MI AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
WIND MAX.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH DEVELOPING
BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE 40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. 
SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALSO FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS INCLUDING BRIEF
TORNADOS AND ENHANCED WIND AND HAIL THREAT. MORE WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS INDIANA/SRN LWR MI INTO WRN OH
WHERE INFLUENCE OF TROUGH WILL BE GREATEST ALONG WITH THE
AVAILABILITY OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

...SRN PLAINS...
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS INTO N TX WWD TO ERN NM WITH COLD FRONT
STILL DROPPING SEWD FROM SRN KS WWD TO ROCKIES.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON IN PANHANDLE AS BOUNDARY STALLS
AND FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPE INTO ERN NM.  WITH FAVORABLE VEERING
SHEAR PROFILES AND MUCAPES EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG...COUPLED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  INITIATION WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NERN NM/SERN CO AND THEN
MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE PANHANDLE WHERE THE HIGH INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOCATED.  LOCAL HAIL MODEL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL IN ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.  EVEN WITH EXPECTED HIGH
BASES...ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS WELL AS DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS.

...LWR MS VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY...
SHEAR IS WEAKER THIS AREA BUT WITH THE STRONG HEATING AND HIGH
INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON...MORE PULSE TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR.  A WEAK MVC OVER WRN AL ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT MCS NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS AR INTO N TX COULD FOCUS MORE
LOCALLY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..HALES/GUYER.. 07/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.