[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051258
SWODY1
SPC AC 051256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
CDS 30 NW CDS 60 NE AMA 25 WSW GCK 30 WNW GLD 30 W SNY 20 ENE BFF 45
ENE AIA 55 SSE 9V9 30 WSW SPW 25 W DBQ 30 WNW FWA 20 W ZZV 35 NNW
CRW 35 SSW CRW 30 SW 5I3 15 S BWG 30 ESE UNO 35 NNW FYV 30 W OKC 25
E CDS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
3B1 25 N BAF 25 SW POU 15 NW AVP 15 ENE ELM 15 W SYR 25 WSW MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRP 35 WSW CLL
40 ESE PRX 25 E DUA 20 SE MWL 25 SSE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65
WNW MRF 35 SSW HOB 20 ESE TCC 50 S RTN 40 NNE INW 35 NE LAS 45 W DRA
60 NNW NID 30 SE FAT 30 NNW FAT 45 NE SCK 30 WSW RNO 15 NE RNO 50 E
U31 40 SSW DPG 45 SE SLC 20 E EVW 45 N EVW 55 E SUN 55 ESE S80 30
WNW S06 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 N OLF 15 S SDY 40 NE Y22 40 NNE ABR
55 SW DLH 20 SSW IMT TVC 30 NNE MBS 40 NNE MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND OH
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...OH VALLEY...
SEVERAL BOW ECHOES ARE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL MO ATTM. THIS
CLUSTER IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CNTRL
PLAINS. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE THE
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CREATING STRONG DEEP SHEAR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN IL REACHING SRN IND LATE THIS
MORNING. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER BOW ECHOES
GIVEN STORM MOTIONS TO THE EAST AT 40 TO 50 KT.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LINEAR MCS WILL REGENERATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE IN THE APPALACHIAN MTNS WHERE UNEVEN TERRAIN AND
LESSENING INSTABILITY SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
A LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CNTRL MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWD TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
ERN KS AND WRN MO BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR STRONG SFC HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG BY
MID-AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ACROSS EITHER ERN KS
OR WRN MO. ALTHOUGH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...40 TO 45 KT AT 500 MB WILL CREATE STRONG
ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST EARLY WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
WIND DAMAGE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR MCS CAN ORGANIZE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EWD
TODAY CAUSING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO OVERSPREAD THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL AID THE INITIATION OF HIGH-BASED STORMS ALONG A
COLD FRONT...MOVING SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NW KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
EXIST. THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO DRIVING AN MCS ACROSS WRN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WRN KS THIS EVENING SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
BECOME MORE SFC-BASED IN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS WCNTRL KS THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
CONSIDERING THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS THE MCS MATURES THIS
EVENING...MOVING SSEWD ACROSS WCNTRL KS INTO NRN OK AROUND MIDNIGHT.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE EWD TODAY SPREADING
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS
WILL AID STORM INITIATION ALONG A COLD FRONT IN WRN NY THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH SHOULD SETUP ACROSS ERN NY WITH MLCAPE VALUES
REACHING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF
DEEP SHEAR AND THIS WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS. FAIRLY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT
ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 07/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.