[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050550
SWODY1
SPC AC 050547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
BNA TBN 25 SSW END 35 WSW CSM 65 NE AMA 20 NNW GCK 35 NNE AKO 40 ENE
CYS 25 NNE AIA 45 SSE 9V9 40 SW OTG 30 NE CID 40 SSE CGX 25 ESE DAY
35 NNW JKL 50 NNW CSV 30 ESE BNA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
3B1 10 NE PSF 25 NW MSV 25 SSE ROC 35 WSW MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N OLF 15 S SDY 40
NE Y22 35 N ABR 50 WSW DLH 20 SSW IMT 10 NNE MKG 10 ESE LAN 40 NNE
MTC ...CONT... 25 S CRP 45 E AUS 30 NNE TXK 30 SSE MLC 20 SE MWL 25
SSE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 35 SSW HOB 20 ESE TCC 50 S
RTN 40 NNE INW 40 NE LAS 30 NW DRA 60 ESE BIH 60 S BIH 30 SE FAT 30
NNW FAT 40 ENE SCK 20 NW RNO 50 E U31 40 SSW DPG 50 SE SLC 40 ENE
EVW 55 E SUN 55 ESE S80 30 WNW S06 45 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND VT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. 
MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY MONDAY EVENING.  UPSTREAM...THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE EJECTING ENEWD
ONTO THE SRN PLAINS NOW...WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MO VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MONDAY AS NRN STREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE NRN ROCKIES DIGS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND WAVE WILL
SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NY AND THE OH VLY MONDAY
EVENING.  TAIL END OF THE SAME FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM
FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  MEANWHILE...LOW-MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY
MONDAY EVENING.  THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SEWD INTO PARTS OF MO
AND OK BY EARLY TUESDAY.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...
COMPLICATED FORECAST HAS UNFOLDED AND MONDAY/S FORECAST SCENARIOS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OWING TO IMPACTS OF ONGOING MCS/S.

MESOSCALE VORT CENTER WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FROM ONGOING MCS OVER KS 
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NEWD AHEAD OF MAIN IMPULSE.  LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ FEEDING UNSTABLE AIR MASS
NWD WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN PORTIONS OF ANY ONGOING MCS/S THAT MOVE
ENEWD INTO IA...IL AND IND THROUGH THE DAY.

AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY IN WAKE OF MCS/S/SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG FROM NRN MO INTO CNTRL IL. 
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE
AND PERSISTENT MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION OR REGENERATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY. 
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WLY FLOW OF 40 KTS IN A LOW LCL
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

UPSTREAM...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY HEAT CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE
TRIPLE POINT/DRYLINE AND ALONG THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT ACROSS
PARTS OF WRN NEB.  AS THE CAP IS BREACHED...OWING TO HEATING AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY.  THOUGH THE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE MARGINAL...MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DRYLINE.  STRUCTURES TRENDING
TOWARD MORE LINE SEGMENTS WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT.  ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEB...KS AND INTO MO BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

FINALLY...FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  PASSING OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE EARLY IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER...MAY TEND TO KEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF
THE DRYLINE WEAK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INITIATION.  GIVEN TSTMS...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...UPSTATE NY INTO VT...
BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING OVER MOST
OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS WARM MOIST AIR MASS
TRANSLATES NEWD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...ESPECIALLY IF BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT IN WAKE OF
WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTION.  TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP IN SERN CANADA
AND MOVE EWD INTO NY AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS WILL BE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. BUT...INCREASING WLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO.

..RACY/TAYLOR.. 07/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.