[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050103
SWODY1
SPC AC 050100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
LWD IRK 45 ENE JEF 40 NW POF 25 WSW ARG 35 NNE LIT 20 N HOT 15 NNE
PGO 50 SSW TUL 25 NNW OKC 25 S CSM CDS 35 ENE PVW 15 SSE AMA 25 ESE
EHA 15 SSW LAA 35 N LHX LIC 25 ESE AKO 40 E SNY 25 E CDR 10 E 81V 40
NNW REJ 20 NNW Y22 25 NW HON 25 S FSD 55 SW FOD 25 N LWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N EFK 10 WSW RUT
25 S PSF 10 E ISP ...CONT... 25 S LCH 35 NW LFT HEZ 50 E MLU 15 NNW
MLU 40 NNE DAL 25 NNE ABI DRT ...CONT... 35 SE ELP 20 SW ROW 55 SSE
LVS 55 SSW ALS 10 SW FMN 45 SSW 4BL 20 W U17 60 WNW P38 45 SSW U31
30 SSE NFL 55 S NFL 55 N BIH 15 ESE BIH 35 SSW BIH 45 ENE MER 35 SW
TVL 60 W RNO 40 E RBL 45 SSE MHS 45 E MHS 75 SE 4LW 45 W WMC 25 NNW
WMC 50 WNW OWY 45 WNW TWF 40 W SUN 45 NNE BOI 35 NNE BKE 45 WNW PUW
55 WSW 4OM 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF P24 40 ESE BIS 45 SSE
FAR BRD 85 NW CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...

...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
MESOANALYSIS AND 00 UTC SOUNDINGS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW TWO MAIN
AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. ONE AREA WILL BE ACROSS NEB AND THE OTHER ACROSS
KS AND NRN OK EWD INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR.

DOMINANT MCS SHOULD EVOLVE OVER CNTRL/SRN KS THIS EVENING.  VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM AND WILL
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS KS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MOVING OUT OF CO AND NEWD FROM OK. 
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS-NRN OK-SWRN
MO-NWRN AR AND THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD ALONG SRN
EDGE OF COLD POOLS INTO THE 40 KT SWLY LLJ.  AT THE SAME TIME...
LEADING EDGE OF THE TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD FORWARD PROPAGATE GIVEN
INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT.  

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
LINE SEGMENTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY THIS
EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT AS
THE MCS/S MOVE ESEWD TOWARD SWRN MO...NERN OK AND NWRN AR.  

OTHER TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVING ACROSS SWRN SD AND WRN NEB ARE LIKELY
TO BE MAINTAINED.  EVENING RAOB/PROFILER/VWP ANALYSIS DEPICT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF MT/WY.  THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NEB ALONG A
WEAK FRONT WHERE A PERSISTENT CU FIELD IS OBSERVED.  A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MCS OR TWO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE MO VLY AND
MAY PERSIST INTO WRN IA/NWRN MO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH ATTENDANT
DAMAGING WINDS.

...SRN PLAINS...
ISOLD SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX
PNHDL TO JUST NORTH OF MIDLAND.  STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS KS...THE TX PNHDL AND OK THROUGH THE EVENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT TSTMS MAY MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD INTO WRN
OK WHERE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL EXIST.  FARTHER
S...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING.  UNTIL
THEN...ANY TSTM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

...WRN NY INTO THE CAROLINAS...
BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE ALONG TAIL END OF MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD. STRONGEST WLY FLOW EXISTS NORTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...BUT ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING
WINDS. TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

...SERN STATES...
WEAKENING TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/EARLY DAY DERECHO
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NWRN GA AND ERN AL.  THESE TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

..RACY.. 07/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.