[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 042016
SWODY1
SPC AC 042014

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
MSS 35 S UCA 20 NNE HGR 35 NNE SSU 50 ESE LOZ 30 E CHA 15 WNW GAD 20
NNW GWO 35 ESE PGO 50 SSW TUL 30 S END 10 NE CSM 60 NE P07 25 WSW
FST 25 N TCC ALS 25 N CYS 20 S GCC 25 SW 3HT 40 SSE GTF 35 ENE GTF
65 E HVR 35 WNW Y22 35 SSE FSD 20 ENE P35 10 SSW MTO 25 SW ZZV 30 SW
CAK 20 W FNT 40 ENE PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 35 NW LFT
HEZ 50 E MLU 15 NNW MLU 40 NNE DAL 25 NNE ABI DRT ...CONT... 45 E
DUG 25 S TCS 20 SSW ONM 35 NE GNT 10 SW FMN 45 SSW 4BL 20 W U17 60
WNW P38 45 SSW U31 30 SSE NFL 55 S NFL 55 N BIH 15 ESE BIH 35 SSW
BIH 45 ENE MER 35 SW TVL 60 W RNO 40 E RBL 45 SSE MHS 45 E MHS 75 SE
4LW 45 W WMC 25 NNW WMC 50 WNW OWY 45 WNW TWF 40 W SUN 45 NNE BOI 35
NNE BKE 45 WNW PUW 55 WSW 4OM 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF P24
40 ESE BIS 25 WSW FAR 30 W BJI 25 E INL ...CONT... 15 N EFK 10 WSW
RUT 25 S PSF 10 E ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MID MS / OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...

...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS NEB / KS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM MT
SEWD INTO CO...WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN NEB / ERN CO / KS. STORMS
SHOULD MOVE EWD / SEWD WITH TIME INTO WRN SD / NEB / KS...IN
ADDITION TO NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG VARIOUS LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES.  

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO KS
/ NEB...WHERE MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT BENEATH GENERALLY SELY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS.  AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS
EVENING...STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS THEY MOVE
SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL
BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INITIALLY...WITH
THREAT PERHAPS TRENDING TOWARD PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT
WITH BOWING / MCS-TYPE ORGANIZATION EXPECTED.

...ERN OH / WRN PA / WRN NY / WV...
STORMS CONTINUE FROM ERN LOWER MI SEWD ACROSS ERN OH / WRN PA INTO
WV...WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED.  STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD WITH TIME ACROSS WRN PA / WRN NY...WITH
ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.  ALTHOUGH THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK HEATING...STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


...MID MS / TN / LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
BOWING MCS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY ATTM...WHILE STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SERN IL
AS THEY APPROACH SWRN IND.  WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH MODERATE / WLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW...THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TN / OH VALLEYS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED / HIGH-BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM ATTM...AND
SHOULD DEVELOP SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF W TX / THE PANHANDLE REGION
AND PERHAPS WRN OK WITH TIME.  ALTHOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY
DIURNAL IN NATURE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY / SHEAR SUPPORTS A THREAT
FOR MULTICELL STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL EXPECTED.

..GOSS.. 07/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.