[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041612
SWODY1
SPC AC 041610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
ROC 30 W ELM 25 NE AOO 35 NNE SSU 15 NW BKW 30 ESE FDY FNT 30 NE
PLN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
PGO 40 NW PGO 35 SSW TUL 45 NE OKC 30 S END CSM 55 ENE P07 25 WSW
FST 20 ESE LAA 25 SSE BFF 15 SSW GCC 25 SW 3HT 35 SSE GTF 40 ENE GTF
30 SSE HVR 40 W GDV 25 WSW Y22 9V9 30 NE STJ 40 NE SDF 30 SSW LOZ 40
SSE TYS 10 NW GAD 20 NNW GWO 30 E PGO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ELP 45 ENE DMN
25 NW TCS 45 N GNT 10 SW FMN 45 SSW 4BL 20 W U17 60 WNW P38 45 SSW
U31 30 SSE NFL 55 S NFL 55 N BIH 15 ESE BIH 35 SSW BIH 45 ENE MER 35
SW TVL 60 W RNO 40 E RBL 45 SSE MHS 45 E MHS 65 NE SVE 45 W WMC 25
ENE WMC 35 WSW OWY 35 NW TWF 40 W SUN 45 NNE BOI 35 NNE BKE 45 WNW
PUW 55 WSW 4OM 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 25 S LCH 35 NW LFT HEZ 50 E MLU
15 NNW MLU 40 NNE DAL 25 NNE ABI DRT ...CONT... 15 N EFK 15 SE RUT
30 S POU 10 SSW JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF P24 40 ESE
BIS 25 WSW FAR 30 W BJI 25 E INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OH VALLEY/WRN PA AND NY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S. AND HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US WITH SEVERAL S/WVS AFFECTING

AREAS  E OF THE ROCKIES.  SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS
GREAT LAKES WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSES NRN ROCKIES. IN SRN
BRANCH MID LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SRN HI PLAINS BY EARLY TONIGHT.

A RATHER WEAK FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO
NRN LWR MI WSWWD TO MO/IA BORDER WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY WRN OH WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN NY/PA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING NOTED
ON WV IMAGERY.

CURRENT SEVERE MCS AR/MO BORDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS  AFTERNOON
AS IT CROSSES MS RIVER.  OUTFLOW FROM MCS EXTENDS WWD ACROSS NRN OK
AND WILL TEND TO RETURN NWD INTO SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY LINE SHOULD MIX EWD AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM SWRN CORNER
KS SWD THRU TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...ERN OH VALLEY/WRN NY PA...
...REF MCD 1495...
VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH
WRN OH.  WITH LITTLE CAP..EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.  MID
LEVEL DRYING WILL ENHANCE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL WITH STORMS ALONG
WITH THE 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
VEERING...HELICITIES TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS DURING AFTERNOON...BUT PREDOMINANT THREAT WILL BE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

...PLAINS...

RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TX TO SD AS BOTH
THE NRN AND SRN STREAM TROUGHS WILL BE A FACTOR FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 9C/KM AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN A VERY TO
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS E OF DRY LINE SRN PLAINS WITH MLCAPES
GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ENHANCED MID/UPPER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING
THE TROUGH ENTERING SRN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG/E OF DRY LINE AND VICINITY
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL RETURN NWD INTO SRN KS.

SHEAR AND INSTABILITY  SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE BOTH
THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  THE RELATIVELY HIGH BASES 
WITH EXPECTED VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO
THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE MAY BE UPGRADED IN AFTERNOON OUTLOOK
IF THE SUBSTANTIAL CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW INITIATION BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER N WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF NRN
ROCKIES TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGH PLAINS
OF NEB/SD INTO SERN MT AND SPREAD E/SEWD THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
WIND  SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK THUS SEVERE WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
MULTICELL/PULSE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST WINDS.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEY...

...REF MCD 1496 AND 1497
HAVE EXPANDED THE RISK AREA EWD AS THE MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN
AR/SRN MO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
 EXTENDS EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY. WITH SUCH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD
POOL...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
POOL PLOWS THRU THE HIGH INSTABILITY.  DEVELOPING STORMS CENTRAL IL
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WIND MAX ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD AND
BE POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH MUCAPES TO 3000 J/KG

..HALES/JEWELL.. 07/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.