[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041301
SWODY1
SPC AC 041258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
ROC 30 W ELM 25 NE AOO 30 E MGW 20 SSE ZZV 30 ESE FDY FNT 30 NE PLN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
PGO 40 NW PGO 10 E TUL 25 NE PNC 35 ESE P28 15 SE GAG 50 WSW GAG 10
ESE EHA 50 W GLD 25 SSE BFF 15 SSW GCC 25 SW 3HT 35 SSE GTF 40 ENE
GTF 30 SSE HVR 40 W GDV 25 WSW Y22 9V9 30 SW SUX 20 NE P35 50 NE COU
50 NNW POF 35 SW ARG 30 NNE HOT 30 E PGO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW MOT 30 WSW P24
25 SW BIS 55 NNW ABR 35 ESE FAR 35 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 NNW EFK 15
SE LEB 15 SE GON ...CONT... 25 S LCH 10 ENE SHV 40 SE PRX 40 NNE DAL
10 N BWD DRT ...CONT... 55 SW DMN 25 W TCS 40 NW ONM 25 WSW 4SL 20
NNW DRO 40 N 4BL 20 SSE MLF 20 WNW P38 60 S TPH 20 E NID 30 ESE BFL
30 E SCK 35 S LMT 90 SE BNO 40 SE ALW 40 WSW GEG 60 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...

...CNTRL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES...WILL MOVE EWD TODAY REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT AND SPREAD STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A LEE TROUGH IN ERN CO AND WRN KS. OTHER
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SE MT SEWD INTO WRN
NEB. THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS NEAR PEAK
HEATING WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
CONSIDERING THE STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

IN THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
COINCIDE WELL WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S F AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL FEED AN MCS AS IT TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS KS
DURING THE EVENING. STRONGLY BACKED SFC WINDS AND WLY FLOW AT ABOUT
35 KT WILL RESULT IN 35 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MOST PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
CONSIDERING 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 9.0 C/KM.
SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS GREATER THAN 20 DEGREES F WILL RESULT IN
HIGH CLOUD BASES WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AS WELL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE
BACKED SFC FLOW NE OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS. THE STORM CLUSTERS
SHOULD CONGEAL INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS THE MCS SPREADS EWD ALONG THE NOSE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET INTO CNTRL AND ERN KS.

...OZARK PLATEAU...
A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NW AR WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE QUICKLY SEWD THIS MORNING. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT
SHOULD EXIST WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO CNTRL AR LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE LINE SHOULD OCCUR AS IT
OUTRUNS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OVER NE OK AND FAR SW
MO. A COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STABILIZING
THE AIR OVER SE KS...SW MO...ERN OK AND AR...LIKELY PREVENTING
STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM RE-OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN
THIS REGION.

...ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY.
LINES OF CONVECTION WILL SPIN AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LOW...MOVING GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD OCCUR AND A SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN OH AND ERN LOWER MI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 35 KT
OF DEEP SHEAR AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER. THE
FIRST LINE WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN NY AND WRN PA BY LATE AFTERNOON
WHERE WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST. OTHER
SEVERE STORMS WITH A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY AGAIN DEVELOP NEAR
THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN OH BY EARLY EVENING AS A
SECONDARY BAND OF ASCENT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER-LOW.

..BROYLES.. 07/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.