[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040558
SWODY1
SPC AC 040556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
ROC 30 NE PSB 50 SSE LBE 25 NNW PKB 20 W MFD 25 SSE JXN 15 NE LAN 45
E APN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
GGW 10 WNW Y22 25 WSW PIR 15 ENE ANW 30 NE OFK 35 S MCW 30 E CID 35
E UIN 35 WNW POF 55 SW JBR 30 NNW HOT 30 SSW MKO 20 SSW PNC 30 E GAG
45 SSW GAG EHA 50 N LAA 10 E SNY 20 WSW 4BQ 40 SSW BIL 40 E LVM 40
NW LWT 30 N CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW EFK 15 SE LEB
15 SE GON ...CONT... 15 SSW LCH 35 WNW MLU 45 E PRX 45 E SPS 10 N
BWD DRT ...CONT... 30 SSE DMN 10 ESE TCS 10 N ONM 25 W SAF 20 NNW
DRO 40 N 4BL 20 SSE MLF 20 WNW P38 60 S TPH 20 E NID 30 ESE BFL 30 E
SCK 35 S LMT 90 SE BNO 40 SE ALW 40 WSW GEG 60 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70
NE OLF 50 SSE ISN 30 SW BIS 55 NNW ABR 35 ESE FAR 35 WNW INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL TO NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL
TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO ONTARIO BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE WEAKENING AND PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM POSITIVELY
TILTED IMPULSE ENTERING THE UPPER LAKES REGION.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS/MO VLYS
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.

UPSTREAM...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS 1/ SRN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERTS
BECOMES DISLODGED AND MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES AND 2/ NRN STREAM
UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SETTLES SEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. 
INCREASING WLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

...UPPER OH VLY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
BROAD SWATH OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING ENEWD INTO THE
UPPER OH VLY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING.  UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF HEATING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THIS
REGION.  NONETHELESS...STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL PROFILES AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXIST TO KEEP AT LEAST
CONDITIONAL RISKS OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST.  STRONGEST
FORCING/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO PASS NEWD INTO ONTARIO.

ANY CLEARING BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...MAINLY
OVER PARTS OF ERN LOWER MI.  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLD TORNADOES OR GUSTY WINDS.

...CNTRL TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
TSTMS /WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS/ ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD VCNTY THE MO/KS/AR/OK BORDER.  SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LLJ REMAINS VEERED AND DIRECTED INTO THE
DECAYING MCS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY CAUSE BACKBUILDING TSTMS INTO NERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO AND
NRN AR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN  PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FROM
VERY UNSTABLE...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

MEANWHILE...CAP IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NWD INTO SRN KS SUNDAY.  MID
70S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY BENEATH THIS ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE VCNTY TRIPLE POINT SWRN KS
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEWD INTO SERN NEB AND SRN IA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR 35-40 KTS AND MLCAPES 3500-4000 J/KG WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
 ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER MCS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
ESEWD INTO NERN OK...SWRN MO AND NWRN AR.  STRONGEST STORMS WILL
TEND TO BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS...WITH THE
NRN-MOST STORMS /ACROSS NRN MO/ WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ATOP RESIDUAL
BUBBLE HIGH FROM THE EARLY SUNDAY MCS.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THE LENGTH OF THE LEE-TROUGH/
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN NERN CO...BLACK HILLS AND INTO CNTRL MT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  INFLUX OF UPPER 50S DEW POINTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO CNTRL MT-BLACK HILLS REGION BENEATH APPROACHING MIDLEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH/INCREASED WLY FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO DEVELOP INTO A MCS
AND MOVE EWD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF SD AND NEB SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS...
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONVERGENT THAN ON SATURDAY AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  ISOLD
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...IF THE CAP CAN BE BREACHED. 
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING WILL BE NEAR THE WRN OK BORDER
INTO SWRN KS.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. 
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IS LOW...AND WILL REFLECT LOW PROBABILITIES
OF SEVERE THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE ATTM.

...CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN AREA...
A MCV MAY EVOLVE FROM UPSTREAM CNTRL PLAINS CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY
AND MOVE EWD INTO THE KY/TN AREA BY PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE... FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG.  IT IS CONCEIVABLE
THAT TSTMS COULD INITIATE VCNTY THE MCV AND TRACK EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF KY/TN DURING THE EVENING WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
HAIL.

..RACY/TAYLOR.. 07/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.