[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031245
SWODY1
SPC AC 031243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
PBF 30 NNW LIT 15 E UNO 50 SSW BLV 20 NE MVN 20 N OWB 10 SW BWG 10
NW MSL 10 NE GWO 20 SSW PBF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
EHA 15 NNE LHX 45 NW AKO 55 SW RAP 10 ENE RAP 15 ENE PHP 45 NNE VTN
25 SSW BBW 30 N DDC 10 NE LBL 30 WNW EHA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW SYR 25 SSW ELM
35 S CXY 35 SW WAL ...CONT... 50 WSW GLS 25 WSW CLL 55 W TPL 50 N
JCT 70 N DRT 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 50 SSW SOW 30 NW SOW 40
NE FLG 45 SE SGU 35 NW P38 55 NW DRA 20 NNE NID 10 WSW EDW 20 NNE
OXR 15 NNE SCK 40 SSW MHS 35 N MFR 30 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW GEG
70 WNW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PSM 45 N BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...

...MID MS VALLEY...
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK AND AR SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD
INTO NRN LA. THE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER MO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW'S PERIPHERY AS TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM NW LA NNEWD TO WRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 70S F. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO REACH THE 80S AND 90S ALONG
THE MOIST AXIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
BY AFTERNOON FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF 45 TO 50
KT ACROSS NCNTRL OK. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR BARELY INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY.
THE 21Z FORECAST SOUNDING FROM MEMPHIS TN SHOWS MLCAPE OF 2000 J/KG.
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SE MO SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND MULTICELL
STORMS SHOULD BE THE DOMINATE MODE OF CONVECTION. 25 TO 35 KT OF
FLOW IS FORECAST AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY
THREAT ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

...HIGH PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NRN WY WILL
MOVE EWD INTO SD AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM WRN NEB ACROSS WRN KS. OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY.

AS STORMS INITIATE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH DUE TO LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...SFC TEMPS FROM 85 TO 95 F ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY
SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE 21Z FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
GOODLAND SHOWS ABOUT 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY
IF THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED OR EXCEEDED.

THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING
7.5 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELL
STORMS. THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL ALSO FAVOR ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS
THE STORMS MOVE SEWD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG THE NE EDGE OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE STORMS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 07/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.