[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031605
SWODY1
SPC AC 031604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
ELD 45 NE PBF 25 ESE POF 25 ENE BLV 55 ESE MMO 25 W MIE 25 ENE SDF
25 SSE MSL 25 WNW JAN 25 SSW ELD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
EHA 15 NNE LHX 45 NW AKO 55 SW RAP 10 ENE RAP 15 ENE PHP 35 NW OFK
20 SW LNK 20 NE SLN 10 NE LBL 30 WNW EHA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP 50 NNE VCT
15 SE ACT 25 W SEP 40 E BGS 40 S MAF 35 WSW FST 10 SSW MRF 60 SSW
MRF ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 25 E ELP 20 N ELP 40 SE TCS 25 ENE SVC 30
NE SAD 30 S SOW 15 ENE SOW 50 SW GNT 30 SSE GUP 25 WSW GUP 55 ENE
INW 20 NE INW 55 NNW INW 20 NE GCN 35 WNW GCN 35 SW SGU 35 WNW P38
70 WNW P38 15 SSE TPH 35 NE NID 35 NW EDW 20 E BFL 30 NNE BFL 20 ENE
FAT 35 E SCK 35 NE SAC 35 SE RBL 15 SSE RBL 45 ENE UKI 30 ENE UKI 45
WSW RBL 20 ENE ACV 30 WSW MFR 25 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW GEG 70 WNW
4OM ...CONT... 30 NW ROC 25 NW IPT 35 S CXY 20 SSW WAL ...CONT... 15
NE PWM 60 W 3B1.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OH AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS...

...WRN OH/MID MS VALLEY...
UPPER LOW MO/IA WILL LIFT NEWD INTO WI BY LATE TONIGHT.  THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NERN MO WILL ALSO MOVE NEWD
INTO NWRN IL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM
IR/WV IMAGERY OF A DOUBLE STRUCTURE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN NERN KS FRI NOW A WEAKER CIRCULATION
OVE SRN IA WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ROTATING  S OF THIS CENTER
ACROSS MO INTO WRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS REDUCING HEATING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
OVER MUCH OF IL...HOWEVER FURTHER E INTO INDIANA THE AIR MASS IS
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 80S AND DEWPOINTS LOW
70S.  MUCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO 2500 J/KG AND ABOVE WITH LITTLE CIN
MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN IN AT 15Z. WITH A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WITH UPPER
TROUGH...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW LCL/S OF THE TROPICAL AIR MASS ALONG
WITH THE MUCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
TORNADOES AND MOVED THE RISK AREA NWD THRU ERN IL/IN.

FURTHER S ACROSS WRN TN VALLEY INTO NRN PORTION OF LOWER MS
VALLEY...THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND WEAKER SHEAR
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A MORE PULSE SEVERE THREAT BY MID AFTERNOON.


...CENTRAL PLAINS...

STRONG HEATING WITH A MODEST W/WNWLY FLOW WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE REMAINS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MDT TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH INITIALLY RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES...A PULSE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL
LIKELY INITIATE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND PROPAGATE E/SEWD.

TONIGHT A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE NWD ADVECTION OF
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
EVOLVING INTO A MCS OVER NEB.  THE OUTLOOK THEREFORE HAS SPREAD
SEVERE RISK EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LAST DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 07/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.