[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030547
SWODY1
SPC AC 030545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
UNO 50 SSW BLV 20 NE MVN 20 N OWB 10 SW BWG 10 NW MSL 10 NE GWO 20 S
PBF 30 WNW LIT 15 ESE UNO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
PHP 45 NNE VTN 25 SSW BBW 30 N DDC 10 NE LBL 35 WNW EHA 20 N LHX 40
NW AKO 45 SW RAP 30 NNW PHP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW SYR 25 SSW ELM
35 S CXY 35 SW WAL ...CONT... 50 WSW GLS 60 NE CLL 35 NW ACT 35 W
BWD 70 N DRT 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 65 E DUG 50 NW TCS 4SL 50 SSW GUC
GJT 20 ENE PUC 25 NW U24 15 S ELY 20 SW TPH 20 NNE NID 10 WSW EDW 20
NNE OXR 15 NNE SCK 40 SSW MHS 35 N MFR 30 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW
GEG 70 WNW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PSM 45 N BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AR TO SRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS TO SWRN SD...

...LOWER MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY...

MID MS VALLEY UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ERN
PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE A NARROW ZONE OF STRONGER MID-HIGH
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN KS...ARCING INTO THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER AR...NEWD INTO SRN IL/IND.  EARLY THIS
MORNING...MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION EXPOSE THE CYCLONIC NATURE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WITH AN APPARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST NORTH
OF MCI IN NWRN MO.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DUE TO
STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OK APPEARS TO BE AIDING
EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FROM SRN MO/NRN AR INTO NERN OK. 
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT WILL PROPAGATE
ESEWD ACROSS ERN OK/AR BY 12-15Z.  LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RENEWED...POSSIBLY MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A ZONE FROM SERN
AR INTO SRN IL BENEATH MODEST FLOW ALOFT.  FORECAST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FAVOR AT LEAST MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR SOME HAIL OR
WIND WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

...HIGH PLAINS...

SLIGHT EWD SHIFT TO UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...ACROSS WY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ONE SHORTWAVE OF
CONCERN SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
FROM WRN SD INTO WRN NEB AS LLJ BEGINS TO RESPOND AND
INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN A ZONE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY...1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE...STRONGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW
AND SPEED SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELL TYPE UPDRAFTS.  LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS ONE OR MORE
POSSIBLE MCS/S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING...WITH SEWD
PROPAGATION AND GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 07/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.