[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311631
SWODY1
SPC AC 311630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ONP 45 S EUG
15 WSW MFR 20 NW RBL 65 WNW BIH 55 NNW NID 35 E BFL 40 NE SBA 25 WSW
PRB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN U.S...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WRN U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A SERIES OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA SHIFT EWD.  LEADING VORT
MAX NEAR CENTRAL CA WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...AS
NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS ESEWD INTO SERN ORE/NRN CA IN ITS WAKE. 
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION NOW OCCURRING WITH LEADING
SYSTEM WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING UNDER POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR
NOW IN PLACE.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL STILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
THOUGH STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CA THIS
AFTERNOON...HAIL SIZE WILL BE MITIGATED BY LIMITED INSTABILITY.

...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN MO...
APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL EXIST ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  HOWEVER...OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT FORECAST
ACROSS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA.  MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  THIS SHOULD INCREASE INHIBITION
AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH CONVECTION NOW ACROSS SERN TX. 
FARTHER NORTH...LLJ AXIS ON 12Z MODELS REMAINS OVER OR JUST EAST OF
THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
THUS...EXPECT ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NERN OK/SERN KS/SRN MO
WILL BE LIGHT AND THUNDER-FREE LATER TONIGHT.

..EVANS.. 12/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.