[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311258
SWODY1
SPC AC 311256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ONP 15 E EUG
MFR 25 N MHS 45 SSW SVE 50 SE TVL 25 N BFL 40 NE SMX 25 WSW PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 60 SSW CLL
15 N CLL 25 SE TYR 35 S TXK 35 SW ELD 45 E SHV 30 WSW POE 25 SSW
BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE FYV 25 NE MKO
25 NE TUL 45 WSW CNU EMP 25 ESE TOP COU 35 SSW STL 25 N POF 15 N ARG
55 SE HRO 30 SE FYV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE INLAND INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT...AIDING IN EJECTING A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER NRN MN NEWD INTO QUEBEC. THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN
COMBINATION WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
MOST OF THE COUNTRY.

...SERN TX/NWRN LA...
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS EVIDENT NEAR A BRO-HOU-LFK LINE... WITH
SHALLOW CONVECTION MOVING NWD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AXIS. MORNING
CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A WEAK CAP AROUND 700 MB. HOWEVER... 5-10
DEGREES OF SURFACE WARMING WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDER THREAT SHOULD NOT EXTEND BEYOND LATE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO
PRESSURE FALLS OVER NM/CO...INDUCING SELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

...PACIFIC COAST...
LIGHTNING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS OCCURRED MAINLY NEAR THE
COASTLINE WHERE WARMER OCEAN WATERS PROVIDED MORE INSTABILITY THAN
COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES. WITH TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE...THE
LIGHTNING OCCURRENCE SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS.
HOWEVER...-28C TO -30C 500 MB TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL DEGREES 
OF SURFACE WARMING SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...SRN MO/SERN KS/NERN OK AND NWRN AR...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AS SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS EWD INTO SRN TX AND POLAR JET
LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING/COOLING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
TOWARD 12Z.

...ERN GREAT LAKES...
AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SHIFT NEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AREA INTO CANADA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SHIFT NEWD OUT OF
THE REGION. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO ACROSS EXTREME SERN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH...BUT THREAT APPEARS
TOO LOW FOR A THUNDER AREA.

..IMY.. 12/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.