[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311949
SWODY1
SPC AC 311947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2004

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ONP 45 S EUG
15 WSW MFR 10 WNW RBL 65 SSE TVL 35 NNW NID 25 WNW EDW 40 NE SBA 25
WSW PRB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN ORE/NRN-CNTRL CA...
VIGOROUS SPEED MAX ROTATING AROUND PARENT PAC NW UPPER LOW WAS
MOVING ACROSS CNTRL CA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  VSBL SATELLITE
SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE SRN VLYS OF CNTRL CA...PRIMARILY
FROM FRESNO SWD ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. IN FACT...ISOLD C-G
LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THIS AREA.  GIVEN STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MODEST INSOLATION...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CNTRL/NRN CA AND WRN ORE.  HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE
SIERRA AND THE SAN JOAQUIN/SACRAMENTO VLYS.  THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL...BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

...SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VLY...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...ADVECTING
MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS NWD THROUGH ERN TX TO THE
LOWER OH VLY.  ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR ACROSS ERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM NOSE AROUND 800 MB
INHIBITING SURFACE BASED PARCELS FROM REACHING LFC/S.  THE RESULT
WILL BE FOR MAINLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
LIGHTNING.

LATER TONIGHT...ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY...BUT PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO BE
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

..RACY.. 12/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.