[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260104
SWODY1
SPC AC 260103

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
PIE 10 NNE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH
25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN
FL PENINSULA...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK
NEWD TOWARD NRN FL/SRN GA OVERNIGHT...AND WEAKEN THIS PERIOD AS IT
MOVES INTO DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW.  EARLY EVENING SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF /200 SSW AQQ/. 
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL/NRN FL HAS
LIMITED THE NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER
SRN FL FROM 10 SW FMY-35 N PBI.  HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURE DATA AND
VWP DATA INDICATED THAT THE COLD AIR MASS IS ERODING NWD ACROSS
CENTRAL FL.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AS THE SWLY LLJ INCREASES
OVERNIGHT AND TRANSLATES EWD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL FL WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE/MODIFY...
ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO RETREAT NWD.

AN AXIS OF MARGINAL-MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM THE
WARM SECTOR OVER SRN FL W/NW TO THE SURFACE LOW.  A COUPLE OF SW-NE
ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTENDED FROM THE SERN GULF INTO SRN FL
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SRN FL...WITH AN ATTENDANT
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS AT MIAMI AND KEY WEST.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS...REFER TO SPCSWOMCD
#2579.

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NNEWD INTO CENTRAL FL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE
LOW TOWARD WEST CENTRAL FL BY 12Z SUNDAY.  STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ
INTO CENTRAL FL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WAA FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS SRN GA.  INCREASING
SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO 70 KT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
SUPPORTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.  THIS THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..PETERS.. 12/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.