[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260541
SWODY1
SPC AC 260540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 40 W JAX 55 W SAV
45 SE CAE 40 SSE FAY 30 SE OAJ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST...
WILL MOVE SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHT
AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AS IT BUILDS EWD OVER THE PLAINS.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER SERN STATES AT START OF
FORECAST PERIOD WILL PHASE WITH OH VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ERN U.S. LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE
REST OF THE EAST COAST AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM.

SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED ALONG EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES NEWD...WITH SECONDARY LOW CURRENTLY
FORMING OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST BECOMING PRIMARY LOW TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE APPROACH OF
PHASING UPPER TROUGHS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM
PORTIONS OF NRN FL NEWD TO SERN NC ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE BY
15-18Z AS UVVS...ASSOCIATED WITH WAA REGIME NNW OF SURFACE LOWS AND
EXIT REGION OF 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET...MOVE NEWD TO ALONG/OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.  COLD FRONT INITIALLY TRAILING SWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WILL MOVE SWD OVER SRN FL AND OFFSHORE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  WSWLY FLOW IN THE 800-600 MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ATOP COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT.  THIS COMBINED WITH
LIMITED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OVER SRN FL.

..PETERS.. 12/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.