[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251957
SWODY1
SPC AC 251955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
PIE 10 NNE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH
25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN AND CNTRL FL...

...FL PENINSULA...
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS IN THE CNTRL GULF AND WILL APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA THIS
EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD...CURRENTLY
EXTENDING WSWWD FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO SOUTH OF NAPLES WITH
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY RANGING FROM 68 TO 72 F. AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR STRONG SFC-BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET JUST
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FORT MEYERS FL. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
INLAND...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE DUE TO THE BACKED
SFC WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN FL. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
RAINSHIELD WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN SELY. THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE
SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE WRN PART OF THE
PENINSULA. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FAST ENELY
STORM MOTION. THIS COMBINED WITH VEERING WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
PENINSULA FROM WEST TO EAST.

..BROYLES.. 12/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.