[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251634
SWODY1
SPC AC 251633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
PIE 10 NNE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH
25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...FL PENINSULA...

VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/LOW HAS ENTERED NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL
MOVE EWD CROSSING FL LATER TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVED S OF THE FL KEYS OVERNIGHT...EXTENDS WNWWD TO
SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N 90W AT 15Z.

FRONT HAS BEGUN RETURN NWD INTO S FL AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE
1006 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL GULF. WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD S
FL BY THIS EVENING AS FAR N AS A FMY TO VRB LINE WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING TO AOA 70F AND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80F.

12Z MODEL RUNS PROVIDING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION AS GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL TIED TO
RETURNING WARM FRONT AND MOVES IT ACROSS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BY 00Z
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPING OVER
ATLANTIC E OF FL.  ETA IS SLOWER ON DEVELOPING STRONG CONVECTIVE
PCPN AND MORE ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF
TROUGH...WHILE MOVING GULF SURFACE LOW MUCH SLOWER AS WELL.

WITH A HIGH QUALITY WARM SECTOR IN SERN GULF AND WRN CARIBBEAN...AND
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING VICINITY WARM FRONT VICINITY 25N
86W...WELL AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...FAVOR A SOLUTION MORE TOWARD THE
GFS EXCEPT SLOWER WITH POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF
WARM FRONT WHERE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED. THIS WOULD
BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO WRN FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING VICINITY FMY.

WHILE LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6C/KM...THE WARM SECTOR WITH
THE HIGH DEWPOINTS SUPPORTS MDT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OFF W COAST
FL S OF WARM FRONT CLIMBING TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 60 KTS AND SR HELICITY TO 200-300 J/KG VICINITY OF THE
WARM FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40
KT AND 500MB WINDS TO 50-60KT. THIS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ONSHORE ALONG WITH THREAT FOR
TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS

ADDITIONALLY MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF GULF
ACTIVITY AGAIN VICINITY WARM FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS S FL.


OVERNIGHT AS STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVE EWD THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH PRIMARILY A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION  NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

..HALES.. 12/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.