[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251213
SWODY1
SPC AC 251211

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
CTY 20 N DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH
25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OFF THE TX GULF COAST.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND INTO THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT.
 RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM.  ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS
DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS FL...WITH GFS MUCH FASTER
AND LESS FOCUSED.  MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER ETA
SOLUTION MAY BE MORE ACCURATE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION. 

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT FL AFTER 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THOUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  STRONG DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. 
GREATEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. LINE OF STORMS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT FROM
WEST TO EAST.

..HART.. 12/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.