[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250525
SWODY1
SPC AC 250523

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
PIE 20 N DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH
25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL
TONIGHT....

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVES SWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SEWD OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST REGION REINFORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS.  ATTENTION THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEUTRALLY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN TX GULF OF MEXICO COAST.  THIS
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME ORIENTED TO A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND NRN FL BY 26/12Z.  

BEST ESTIMATE ATTM IS SURFACE LOW IS SE OF BRO NEAR 24N 94W AND WILL
TRACK ENEWD AND APPROACH THE W CENTRAL FL COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

...CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY LOW EXTENDING SWD AS IT NEARS
TPA/PIE AFTER 26/06Z.  MODELS SEEM TO BE ESTIMATING THAT ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM OFF THE E CENTRAL FL COAST AS
WELL...THUS MARGINALLY DESTABILING THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA DISPLACING THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION... MODELS DEPICT CLOUD COVER/MEAN RH ABOVE 70 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG SLY/SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH WILL ADVECT LOW/MID 60S DEW POINTS INTO
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -5 ACROSS
THE AREA. WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100-110 KT AND 75-85
KT...RESPECTIVELY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND
50-60 KT WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SQUALL LINE THAT WILL OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
 THUS...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SQUALL LINE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL FL AFTER
26/06Z.  HAVE INCLUDED A MINIMAL PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAINLY ALONG/NEAR
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY E-W THRU CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING.

..MCCARTHY.. 12/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.