[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250039
SWODY1
SPC AC 250037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FMY 20 SSW AGR
MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW LRD 25 ENE COT
30 NNE NIR 25 SSE PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG VORTEX OVER SWRN HUDSON BAY HAS LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER MUCH OF THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION.  IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MEXICO S OF
THE BIG BEND OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
INTO EXTREME S TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND WILL BE FLATTENING OUT AS NEXT
STRONG TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

...SOUTH FLORIDA...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE KEYS AND
THE SRN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND LIES BETWEEN THE PENINSULA AND
CUBA.  LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTION NEAR 24N
85W WHICH COULD STILL MOVE OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS S OF THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB WHICH EXTENDS E-W FROM TPA-MLB. 
THUS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 6-8
HOURS OF THE PERIOD.  LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD INHIBIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THRU 25/12Z.

...PARTS OF S TX...

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PARTS OF S TX
DURING THE PAST 3-6 HOURS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHILE THE COLD
AIR MASS IS 50-75 MB DEEP...GIVEN COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PVA FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

..MCCARTHY.. 12/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.