[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211239
SWODY1
SPC AC 211236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRP 60 N PSX
40 SW PRX 30 ESE MLC 30 S HRO 40 SSE CGI 55 E MKL 50 WSW CBM 25 NNE
LUL 25 SSE PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER TX COAST ACROSS ERN TX AND WRN/SRN LA...
12Z SOUNDINGS AND EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE AIR MASS
REMAINS CONVECTIVELY-CHALLENGED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION EARLY
TODAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AMPLIFIED
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM /NOW DIGGING INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION/ WILL
ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  IN
FACT...PLUME OF LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS NOW EXTENDING NWD TO
JUST OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES EVIDENT
NEAR PSX AT 12Z ALONG NOSE OF THIS MOIST AXIS. APPEARS INCREASING
WAA JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN TX AND
SWRN LA THROUGH THE DAY AS H85 LLJ STRENGTHENS.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESPECTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED AND NON-SEVERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  THOUGH...SUFFICIENT
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS.  AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENS AND CONVERGENCE/PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SYSTEM...STORMS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED
THREAT OF BECOMING SURFACE BASED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER TX
COAST. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS...AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO OR TWO...SHOULD STORMS
BECOME SURFACE-BASED.  THUS...A SMALL SLGT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY
IN LATER OUTLOOKS SHOULD THIS POTENTIAL BECOME MORE EVIDENT.

..EVANS.. 12/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.