[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211603
SWODY1
SPC AC 211601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW
GLS 60 N HOU 15 NNE LFK 35 SSW SHV 35 NNE POE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRP 45 SE AUS
45 ENE DAL 30 ESE MLC 30 S HRO 40 SSE CGI 55 E MKL 40 SW CBM 45 SSE
MEI 25 SSE PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN TX/WRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. NEXT TWO DAYS
AS STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES INTO GULF OF ALASKA.  STRONG S/WV TROUGH
COUPLED WITH 150KT 300MB NLY JET NOW DIGGING SSEWD NRN ROCKIES 
SUPPORTS THE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS AS WELL AS PROVIDING THE IMPETUS 
TO MOVE S/WV TROUGH NOW SRN CA/AZ EWD INTO TX TONIGHT.

LEADING EDGE OF THE VERY COLD AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL MO SWWD ACROSS
SERN OK INTO W CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH S/SEWD. BY 12Z WED
FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM KY/WRN TN SWWD ACROSS AR INTO SWRN TX.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLY RETURN FLOW OVER WRN GULF IS RAPIDLY
PICKING UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOW 60F DEWPOINTS ALREADY ONSHORE
MID TX COAST.

...SERN TX/WRN LA...
WITH RELATIVELY STEEP AND COOL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS TX
COUPLED WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE INLAND/MUCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/
ACROSS SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION. 
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT WITH ONLY 30KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW...LOW LEVEL VEERING
PROFILES AND SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT OFF VAD AT HOU...SUGGESTS THAT
 ROTATION POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
INITIALLY THE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ANY OF THESE ROTATING
STORMS THAT EITHER FORM OR MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH FROM THE SWRN U.S...LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KT SERN TX/LA WHILE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE INLAND SERN TX/WRN LA
WITH A LITTLE GREATER CONCERN OF TORNADOES GIVEN THE IMPROVING UPPER
SUPPORT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY THE THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER DARK... AND OVERNIGHT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO A LINEAR MCS.

..HALES.. 12/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.