[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210544
SWODY1
SPC AC 210541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST MON DEC 20 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 40 S CLL 40
SW PRX 30 ESE MLC 30 S HRO 40 SSE CGI 55 E MKL 25 WNW TCL 55 SE MEI
25 SSE PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFICATION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES SPREADING
NEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES. PRIMARY FEATURE
CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WHICH WILL DIVE SWD FROM
WRN CANADA TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN
SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
AND SRN PLAINS. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE FRONT OVER
CNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO WRN LA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA...
CURRENT COASTAL AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
INDICATE A NWD RETURN OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WHILE 00Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED THIS
MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW...A SLIGHTLY DEEPER FETCH OF MODIFIED
AIR WAS SAMPLED AT LCH. CONTINUED SLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS MOISTURE AXIS WITH SOME NWD ADVECTION
LIKELY ACROSS ERN TX AND MUCH OF LA. CURRENT ETA FORECASTS OF 60-65
F DEWPOINTS OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT
SUPPORTED BY ANY OBSERVATIONAL DATA N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE....
SUGGESTING THAT CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY FORECASTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
HIGH.

AN INCREASINGLY COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND RESULTANT DEEP
VERTICAL CIRCULATION FROM ERN TX INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY FROM THE
UPPER TX COAST NWD ALONG DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD CONFINE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG. HERE...VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG WINDS
OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. AS COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS MORE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS SERN TX INTO LA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

..MEAD.. 12/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.