[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201601
SWODY1
SPC AC 201559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO INDUCE LOW-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN TO TX.  LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE GULF BASIN...AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION OF THE CP AIR MASS IS
ONGOING.  INITIAL 2M DEWPOINTS IN THE 12Z ETA WERE TOO HIGH BY AT
LEAST 5-10 F ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...AND IT APPEARS THE ETA
CONTINUES TO RETURN MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY TO THE NW GULF COAST. 
THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE E TX AREA WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL LATER ON DAY 2.

ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL ASCENT /DOWNSTREAM FROM AN
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ WILL SPREAD FROM
THE NEB/SD BORDER REGION ACROSS IA/SRN MN TODAY...REACHING WI BY
EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE
CONVECTIVE...AS EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

..THOMPSON.. 12/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.