[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 102008
SWODY1
SPC AC 102006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
AHN 25 SE RMG 25 W RMG 45 ENE HSV 45 E BNA 60 SSE SDF 25 WSW HTS 10
S CRW 25 WNW SSU 30 SE PSK 20 SSE CLT 25 NE AHN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 30 N DAB
...CONT... 30 E CHS 45 SE CAE 30 SSW CAE 45 W AGS 15 W ANB 15 ENE
MSL 30 S CKV 30 SW OWB 40 SW BMG 15 ENE BMG 25 NNE DAY 20 SSW MFD 30
S YNG 15 W DUJ 20 NNW IPT 25 NW POU BDL 30 SE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TN VALLEY/SRN
APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD...AS A STRONG 100+ KT MID-UPPER LEVEL JET
TRANSLATES TO THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH BY 12Z SATURDAY.

...ERN KY/SRN WV SWD INTO NERN AL/NRN GA/WRN SC...
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS KY/TN VALLEY ATTM
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KY TO NERN AL
AND EWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  A
BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS
NRN GA INTO WRN NC/SC WHERE VAD WIND DATA SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS 1-2
KM ABOVE THE SURFACE.  OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO SRN FL
PENINSULA.  DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/...
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH
AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD.  35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS...WITH
THIS THREAT DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING.

...SERN VA/ERN NC...
EARLY AFTERNOON OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A SMALL WARM SECTOR
ACROSS FAR ERN NC/SERN VA WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH SBCAPE
RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE WAVE
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER NEAR 50 N RWI...WHILE VIS IMAGERY INDICATED
CU/MODERATE CU ALONG THE FRONT FROM 35 NW ORF TO 45 N CAE.  DRYING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED BY CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
SC TO CENTRAL NC AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
STABILIZE THE AIR MASS OVER SERN VA/ERN NC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. 
THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND ANY SEVERE
THREAT.

..PETERS.. 12/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.