[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101624
SWODY1
SPC AC 101622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
AHN 25 ENE ATL 25 WSW RMG 45 WSW CHA 40 W CSV 60 SSE SDF 25 WSW HTS
25 N BKW 10 SSW SSU 20 SE PSK 20 SSE CLT 20 E AHN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CTY 50 NNW
DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CHS 45 SE CAE 30
SSW CAE 45 W AGS 15 W ANB 25 N CBM 35 NNW TUP 30 NNE DYR 30 ESE MDH
45 N EVV 15 ENE BMG 25 NNE DAY 20 SSW MFD 30 S YNG 15 W DUJ 20 NNW
IPT 25 NW POU BDL 30 SE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN TN VALLEY/SRN
APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...

COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD FROM MS VALLEY INTO SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTED BY 100KT NWLY
500MB JET OK/KS ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE OVER WRN
U.S.

OVERNIGHT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY EXITED SERN U.S. 
WHILE TRAILING SWWD ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA.  BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER
OH/ERN KY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS A NEW CENTER DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON DELMARVA AND MOVES UP THE COAST INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT.  DEFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO
NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD.

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SEVERE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD AIR
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
E/SEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS.

...ERN KY/SRN WV SWD INTO NERN AL/NRN GA/WRN SC...

COLD AIR ALOFT WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH RESULTING IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS 5-7K
FT.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50F ALONG WITH SURFACE
HEATING TO RESULT IN MUCAPES FROM 500-800 J/KG DURING AFTERNOON. 
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK WITH WLY FLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
40-50KT ACROSS ERN TN VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER JET WILL
SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF LOW TOPPED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING.

...FL PENINSULA...
TRAILING LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SWD.  MID LEVEL WARM AIR IS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
LINE EVEN THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F.  WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR VICINITY OF THE LINE OF
30-40KT AND MUCAPES TO 2000 J/KG THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF PRIMARILY
BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CELLS IN THE LINE.
THREAT WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS EVENING.

..HALES.. 12/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.