[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101244
SWODY1
SPC AC 101242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
CRE 25 WSW OAJ 25 NW EWN 25 SW ORF 15 ENE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CTY 20 WNW JAX
10 SSE SAV 30 WNW CHS 35 ESE CAE 15 N CAE 40 ESE AHN 15 W ANB 25 N
CBM 25 NW UOX 35 SSE POF 20 WNW CGI 40 ENE SLO 20 SW IND 25 NNE DAY
20 SSW MFD 30 S YNG 15 W DUJ 20 NNW IPT 25 NW POU BDL 30 SE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF ERN
NC/EXTREME SE VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. 
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER AR EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION OF OH/TN VLY TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SATURDAY. 
ASSOCIATED 80+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF 
REFORMING E/NEWD ACROSS GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS.  THE BAND OF VERY
STRONG SSWLY FLOW SHOULD EXTEND FROM AL/GA TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

AT LOWER LEVELS...PATTERN HAS BEEN LEFT SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED BY
AREAS OF SHALLOW OUTFLOW/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WHICH AFFECTED THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THE LAST 24 HRS.
 COLD FRONT NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR TN/MS VLY REGION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE-WISE...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH BROKEN SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING FROM
EXTREME SE VA/NE NC SWWD INTO NE FL.

...ERN NC/EXTREME SE VA...
A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST TIL ABOUT
MID MORNING OVER PARTS OF ERN NC AND EXTREME SE VA...AHEAD OF
EWD-MOVING SQUALL LINE.  AREA VWP DATA CONFIRM MODEL FORECASTS WHICH
SHOW DEEP SWLY SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASING AS SPEED MAX APPROACHES
REGION.  VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QUASI-LINEAR NATURE OF CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLOGENESIS. BUT LONG...SLIGHTLY
HOOKED HODOGRAPHS WITH 60+ KTS OF DEEP SHEAR AND SEASONABLY
WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS.  ONE OR TWO OF THESE MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...BRIEF BOWING STRUCTURES AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...NRN/CNTRL FL...
TAIL END OF SAME PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AFFECTING GA AND THE
CAROLINAS ATTM WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL LATER THIS MORNING.
STRENGTH OF DEEP/UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...AOA 50 KTS...MAY
SUPPORT A FEW SMALL BOWS.  BUT ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT
VERY ISOLATED.

...UPR TN VLY INTO SRN/CNTRL APLCNS...
APPROACH OF COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH AR UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...
COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
SERN U.S. TODAY.  WHILE A FEW OF THESE MAY YIELD HAIL...BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYING AND WEAKNESS OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..CORFIDI.. 12/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.