[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100504
SWODY1
SPC AC 100502

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN 50 ENE ABY
45 WSW AGS 15 WSW AHN 15 W ANB 25 N CBM 25 NW UOX 35 SSE POF 20 WNW
CGI 40 ENE SLO 20 SW IND 25 NNE DAY 20 SSW MFD 30 S YNG 15 W DUJ 20
NNW IPT 25 NW POU BDL 30 SE BOS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY THIS
PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS STRONG TROUGH...PRIMARY SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING FROM OH TO PA TODAY. AS THE
PRIMARY CYCLONE UNDERGOES OCCLUSION DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...A
SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD FROM NJ COAST TO
CAPE COD BY SATURDAY MORNING. INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WITHIN THE ERN FLANK OF THE AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE TROUGH WAS
CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE TSTMS FROM GA TO NC. EXPECT
THIS FRONTAL ZONE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT SWEEPS SEWD
ACROSS MUCH OF FL THROUGH THE DAY.

...CAROLINAS TO SERN VA...
BAND OF STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY AS 
MESOSCALE ASCENT REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FROM N FL TO SERN VA. ALTHOUGH CAPE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE
PRIMARILY TO WEAK/MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL FLOW APPROACHING 100KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
 POTENTIAL FOR FAST MOVING STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
WIND DAMAGE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED AT WHICH THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS
EAST AND OFFSHORE. A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE ADDED IN THE NEXT
OUTLOOK AND WILL DEPEND ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND EARLY
MORNING RAOB DATA FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS.

VERY INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY...COULD DRIVE
A FEW ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN SC AND WRN NC LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THESE
AREAS WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY/STEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES MAY DEVELOP BENEATH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. USUALLY
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW TENDS TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING MOVING INTO THE REGION...A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS WARRANTED.

...FL...
LOW LEVEL LIFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALONG LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL
CIRCULATION AS IT SPREADS SEWD ACROSS FL DURING THE DAY. RELATIVELY
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CAPE/WEAK
UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WLY
FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A LOW PROBABILITY
SEVERE WIND THREAT.

...TN VLY TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY WITHIN THE
DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE QUICKLY UTILIZED BY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW OF THESE CELLS COULD CONTAIN
HAIL. INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS
REGION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE STRONG FORCING...LACK OF
GREATER INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAKENING SHEAR WITHIN SLACK
GRADIENT NEAR UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.

..CARBIN.. 12/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.