[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100108
SWODY1
SPC AC 100106

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
ABY 15 N MGM 25 S BHM 25 N BHM 45 N GAD 15 SSE CHA 50 NNW AHN 15 WSW
GSP CLT 30 N SOP 20 NW RWI 40 NE RWI 40 WSW ECG 30 NNE EWN OAJ 25
ESE FLO 40 S FLO 30 N CHS 30 N SAV 40 W SAV 40 NE ABY 40 NNW ABY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 40 E LUL 35
NNW MEI 20 ESE TUP 45 SE MVN 25 SE MIE ZZV 25 SE HLG 35 SW MRB 20
WNW BWI ACY ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 40 SSE CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN AL...NRN
GA...AND SC...

...SOUTHEAST...
EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DEPICT WARM/MOIST AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK INHIBITION CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG FROM ERN AL
ACROSS GA AND INTO SRN SC AND SERN NC. A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE/WARM FRONT WAS ALSO SITUATED ACROSS THIS REGION...GENERALLY
ALONG A BHM...ATL...NORTH OF CAE...TO GSB LINE. AS OUTLINED IN
LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2526...TSTM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS AL/GA AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INTENSIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE LWR MS VLY AND BRINGS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE TN/OH
VLYS OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE EXISTENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE FCST OF INCREASING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS MESOSCALE LIFT AND SHEAR...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER TO THE DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS...AND INCREASING FLOW...COULD RESULT SMALL SCALE
BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOPING WITH ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE.
STORM MOTION ACROSS GA ATTM WAS RESULTING IN CELLS CROSSING TO THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. ZONE OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND LOW LFC NEAR THE BOUNDARY MIGHT ALSO FAVOR A COUPLE OF
BRIEF TORNADOES AS STORMS CROSS THE WARM FRONT.

INITIAL CONVECTION MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT HINTED AT BY THE LATEST GFS RUN AND
LESS SO BY THE ETA. ACTIVITY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF ANY MCS WILL TAP
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS AND EXIST WITHIN HIGH SHEAR/LOW LFC
ENVIRONMENT. THUS WIND AND TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE NEWD WITH
TIME.

..CARBIN.. 12/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.