[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 092001
SWODY1
SPC AC 092000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
AQQ 10 NNW MCN 35 WSW AGS AGS 55 S CAE 40 NE SAV 25 E SAV ...CONT...
15 NE SSI 30 W JAX 35 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 40 SSE CTY
...CONT... 35 WSW BVE 40 E LUL 15 WSW HOP 30 ENE SDF 30 NNW UNI 40
WSW MGW 10 N CHO DCA ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL INTO
SRN GA AND SRN SC...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO MID
MS VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND ERN STATES.  MEANWHILE...LEAD SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TN PER WV IMAGERY...
WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD TO THE NERN STATES.

...SERN STATES...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
UPPER 60-LOWER 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS GA AND ERN PORTIONS OF
SC/NC. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING OVER
ERN GA/SRN SC MAY SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG.  WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID TN VALLEY AND THE APPROACH
OF DEEPENING UPSTREAM TROUGH COMBINED WITH WAA SHOULD MAINTAIN
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS FROM GA/ERN FL PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS NRN FL TO
SRN SC.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LIMITED
GIVEN CURRENT VEERED /I.E. SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS/ FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
ONGOING STORMS FROM SC TO NRN FL.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE OVERALL POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS. 
NONETHELESS...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FARTHER NW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
KY SWWD TO NRN AL AS 120-150 M HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD OVER THIS AREA
AND LEADING EDGE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVES ATOP RESIDUAL SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

..PETERS.. 12/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.