[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091557
SWODY1
SPC AC 091556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0956 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W
BVE LUL TCL GAD RMG AHN 45 ESE MCN 30 S TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 TUP HOP
SDF CRW SSU CHO DCA ACY ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 40 SSE CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...

...AL/GA/SC/NC...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.  LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER AL/GA HAS WEAKENED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IN EASTERN AL/WESTERN GA.  A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF REMAINING ACTIVITY...AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. 
THEREFORE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS GA SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MAX
MUCAPE VALUES OF 750-1000 J/KG.  THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS IN THIS AREA.  THESE STORMS
MAY ALSO MOVE/DEVELOP EAST- NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SC/NC THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS RETURNING TO THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY. 
AS IN GA...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A THREAT OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS TONIGHT.

...TN/AL THIS AFTERNOON...
AIR MASS IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY
MOIST/UNSTABLE FROM MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN AL.  ETA MODEL
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION...
WITH RUC/ETAKF SOLUTIONS SHOWING WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND LESS CAPE. 
HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND A FEW HOURS
OF SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL IN THIS AREA
TODAY.

..HART.. 12/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.