[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091253
SWODY1
SPC AC 091252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W
BVE 25 WSW LUL 40 NNE MEI 40 NW BHM 35 NNE GAD 25 ESE RMG 35 E LGC
20 NW PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 30 WNW CTY
...CONT... 7R4 25 E GWO 40 SSE POF 15 SW MDH 25 ESE MVN 20 SSW BMG
25 W LUK 35 NNW HTS 25 WNW BKW 20 SSW BLF 35 SSE PSK 25 SE LYH 15 NE
RIC 15 ESE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SE LA/MS ACROSS AL
TO NW GA TODAY....

...SYNOPSIS...
ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER LA/AR WILL MOVE EWD TODAY TO THE TN
VALLEY AND THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT OVER THE APPALACHIANS.  MEANWHILE...A
SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA NOW EMERGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD
AND RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS
VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO
CONTINUE LIFTING NWD TO THE NRN GULF STATES AND THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT...IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD LOW DEVELOPING SEWD FROM THE IA
AREA TO THE OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT.  A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL
SPREAD INLAND ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT... RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...COMBINED WITH 35-50 KT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND 50-70
KT MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
TODAY ACROSS THE SE MS/AL/NW GA AREA.

...SE LA/SE MS/AL/NW GA AREA TODAY...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AXES FROM SE LA NEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN AL...WITH THE
CONVECTION GENERALLY ELEVATED TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT ROUGHLY
ALONG I-20.  THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS ERN MS
NEAR A WAVE ON THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WAVE SHOULD TRANSLATE ENEWD
ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO AL THROUGH THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD OVER SRN AR/NW LA.  BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY NEAR AND E OF THE ONGOING STORMS.  GIVEN THE OBSERVED AND
FORECAST 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR 50 KT...AND 0-3 KM SRH IN
EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 NEAR AND E OF THE BROAD CONVECTIVE BAND...A FEW
SUPERCELLS AND/OR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...MS/TN/KY AREA BY TONIGHT...
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO AREAS NEAR/S OF THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE BY TONIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES NEAR THE MS RIVER.  06Z ETA SOUNDINGS MAY BE
TOO UNSTABLE W/NW OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM BAND...OWING TO THE
SHALLOW CONVECTION SCHEME.  WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN TN/KY AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT
APPEARS TO BE SMALL.

..THOMPSON.. 12/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.