[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081935
SWODY1
SPC AC 081934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST WED DEC 08 2004

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 20 W CLL 15
ENE LIT DYR BWG 25 E HSS 45 N ATL LGC TOI 35 SE MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLI 55 NE PDX PDX 25
N ONP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/GULF COASTAL AREAS.  SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
LOWER 70S OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO THE TEXAS COAST.  MODIFICATION OF LOW
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING SHALLOW CONVECTION IN BROAD ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE WESTERN GULF REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WARMING AT MID-LEVELS IS CURRENTLY CAPPING CONVECTION NEAR COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER...AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS
EVENING...MORE RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR. 
LIFTED PARCELS APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION 
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WHERE MID
-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN COOLER. DEEP CONVECTION...INCLUDING 
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WILL THEN DEVELOP EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ABOVE WARM FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HAIL...AND HAIL SIZES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/CAPE.
 
MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED
TO AREAS SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
STATES.  EVEN ACROSS THIS AREA...HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MITIGATED BY PRESENCE OF SHALLOW NOCTURNAL
NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION LAYER.

WARM SECTOR MAY SPREAD INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY
EVENING...AS SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG BEND REGION.  AS INFLUENCE OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES...INHIBITION MAY WEAKEN
SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE HOUSTON/LAKE CHARLES
AREAS BY THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME.  

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY STRONG AS BROAD 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
STATES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE
INCREASING INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...BEFORE UPPER FORCING SUPPORTS NARROW SQUALL LINE ACROSS
LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT.

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN LESS
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. 
WHILE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH REGARD TO DEPTH OF STABLE SURFACE
LAYER...WITH MEAN ENVIRONMENT FLOW INCREASING INTO 40-50+ KT RANGE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES...A LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS.
  
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST NEAR OREGON/WASHINGTON
COASTAL AREAS ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR
ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TODAY/TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

..KERR.. 12/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.