[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090103
SWODY1
SPC AC 090102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CST WED DEC 08 2004

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
GLS 30 N BPT 20 NNW LFT 25 N HUM 45 SSE HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 30 E NIR 50
N NIR 20 SSE AUS 20 SE TPL 45 SSE PGO 15 WSW ARG 20 SSE PAH 15 NNE
BNA 15 SSW CSV 50 SSW TYS 30 W AND 35 W CAE 45 ESE CAE 20 ENE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SSI 35 SE MCN
35 ESE CSG 35 W DHN 10 SW PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NERN TX GULF COAST AND THE LA GULF COAST...

...NE TX AND LA GULF COAST INLAND ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING TWO FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE LEAD IMPULSE WAS LIFTING
NEWD ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS...WHILE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING OVER W TX. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE FLUX HAVE
INTENSIFIED ACROSS ERN TX AND LA IN RESPONSE TO THE LEAD IMPULSE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS PROCESS HAS RESULTED IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ON AND NORTH OF A COASTAL WARM FRONT SITUATED ROUGHLY
ALONG A VCT-GLS-BVE LINE.

BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...WHILE
CURRENTLY CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
SPREADS QUICKLY EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SMALL PROBABILITY OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS INCREASING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM INTERIOR SECTIONS OF LA ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST...ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE...OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED...STORMS.
SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR POSSIBLY
SPREADING ONSHORE WOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WITH GREATER
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY SO
CLOSE TO SHORE...HAIL/WIND AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO SUPPORT A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA FROM THE SABINE RIVER
EAST ACROSS COASTAL LA.

..CARBIN.. 12/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.