[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081247
SWODY1
SPC AC 081245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 35 ESE TPL
25 W TXK 35 SSW JBR 15 SSW CKV 30 NNE CSV 10 ESE TYS 20 SW AND 20 S
MCN 30 ENE AQQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
SPEED MAXIMA WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS
LATER TODAY AND THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY.  IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH...A SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS
THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF OF MEXICO.  S OF THIS FRONT...BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.  A LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER SW
KS WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS KS/OK/TX AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH
TONIGHT...INDUCING SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. THE RETURNING RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND APPROACHING
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...NW GULF COAST TO TN VALLEY...
INCREASINGLY MOIST WAA PATTERN SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY THIS EVENING ACROSS SE TX/LA.  THIS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD AS FAR NEWD AS TN AND NRN AL/GA
LATE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR AND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. 
MODIFIED REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG...BUT RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES BELOW 600 MB...WHICH AGREES
REASONABLY WELL WITH ETA/ETAKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  VERTICAL SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT THE
POOR LAPSE RATES WILL TEMPER THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED
STORMS...AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO WORK AGAINST
DESTABILIZATION INLAND.  STILL...MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH A 30-40
KT LLJ AND INSTABILITY BASED NEAR THE GROUND SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM SE TX
THIS EVENING INTO CENTRAL MS OVERNIGHT.

...NRN ORE AND WA COASTS...
12Z UIL SOUNDING SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...
WHILE OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA HAS REVEALED ISOLATED STRIKES OFFSHORE.
 HOWEVER...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY MOVING
INLAND...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND WILL BE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA.

..THOMPSON.. 12/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.