[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080538
SWODY1
SPC AC 080537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST TUE DEC 07 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 45 SE CLL
30 SSE TXK 40 ENE PBF 35 SE MKL 20 WSW CHA 10 NE RMG 15 ESE CSG 15
NE MAI 30 SSE CEW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES /
SEWD INTO THE NRN GULF LATE THIS EVENING.  GULF PORTION OF THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NWD INTO ERN TX AND GULF COAST STATES
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
TROUGH AND RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AND POSSIBLY A VERY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
-- ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...E TX EWD ACROSS LA INTO MS...
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE N CENTRAL / NWRN GULF ATTM
S OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL DIURNAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION.

AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX / NRN LA IN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER N OF WARM FRONT. 
THOUGH LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE / FORCING IS ANTICIPATED S OF
FRONT WITHIN WARM SECTOR...GENERAL / BROAD WARM ADVECTION MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON /
EARLY EVENING.

WITH 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS
REGION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...SUFFICIENTLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  NONETHELESS...RELATIVELY
WEAK LAPSE RATES / WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL.  ADDITIONALLY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE MOST
PART -- LIKELY EVEN WITHIN WARM SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW / RELATIVELY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST -- THUS LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE / SPREAD ENEWD
ACROSS LA INTO MS AND PERHAPS AL.  DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION --
PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...AFOREMENTIONED
LIMITING FACTORS IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SUGGEST ONLY A
LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 12/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.