[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 062014
SWODY1
SPC AC 062012

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
ESF 15 NNE LFK 20 WNW TPL 20 SSE BWD 45 WNW MWL 40 ESE SPS 40 SW PGO
10 N LIT 60 ENE PBF 20 NNW GWO 35 SSW GWO 40 WNW ESF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
GLS 40 S SAT 55 NNE DRT 20 N SJT 20 SSW LTS 30 N OKC 15 SW VIH 10 NW
HUF 40 SE IND 20 S SDF 45 N HSV 15 SSW CBM 40 SSE LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD
...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 SE CNM 25 NNW AMA 45 NE GAG 35 E MKC 10 SW
UIN 45 NNW LAF 30 ENE FWA 25 N DAY 25 SSE DAY 50 E RMG 30 SSW MOB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...SERN
OK...SRN AR...AND NRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN TX
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY...

...NCNTRL TX/SRN OK ACROSS TEXARKANA AREA...
POWERFUL AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
80-90KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS N TX
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE AND CONTINUE TO ACT UPON MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS.

STRONG FORCING WAS ALREADY SUSTAINING A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM
SWRN OK SWD ACROSS NWRN TX TO THE WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. AIR
MASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE AS DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ALSO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE EVENING. 18Z RAOBS FROM FWD AND SHV INDICATED
LIMITED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH GRADUAL
MOISTENING...SHOULD PROVIDE A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TSTM
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SQUALL LINE MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN EMERGENT
LINEAR STRUCTURE...WEAK CAPE...AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION. WHILE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SUCH A
STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT...MAIN HAZARD ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MDT
RISK AREA APPEARS TO BE FROM STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THE SQUALL LINE.

...SERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY...
WARM SECTOR APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS SERN OK AND
SRN AR AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR ABI. AN EXTENSIVE BAND
OF WAA INDUCED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES FROM SERN TX NEWD ACROSS
NRN MS AND WRN TN. TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS PLUME
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...AS STRONGER FORCING...FLOW FIELDS...AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ISOLD SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FROM HOU AREA ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER.
EVENTUALLY THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THESE REGIONS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD
TORNADOES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NERN TX GULF COAST AND AS FAR NORTH
AND EAST AS THE MS RIVER AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS.

..CARBIN.. 12/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.