[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061631
SWODY1
SPC AC 061629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
CLL 10 E ACT 10 SSE DAL 25 W PRX 40 N DYR 50 SSE PAH 40 NNE TUP 55 W
JAN 30 WSW POE 20 NW CLL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
PSX 45 ENE COT 55 WNW COT 25 NNW DRT 55 W SJT 70 WSW SPS 10 SSW ADM
35 ENE FSM 30 NNW UNO ALN 20 S DNV 50 NW LUK 45 SW LEX 35 NNE MEI 15
S 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ELP 30 ENE ALM
50 NNW CDS 35 SSE P28 35 ENE MKC 30 SE MLI 10 N SBN TOL 30 NW ZZV 10
NNE 5I3 10 N SEM 35 SSW MOB ...CONT... 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
EAST TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX...ACROSS THE LOWER/MID
MS VALLEY...INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NM IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS TX AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  12Z ETA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TROUGH IS STRONGER AND HIGHER
AMPLITUDE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A HEIGHTENED
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FROM TX INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

...WEST/CENTRAL TX TODAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING NEAR MAF.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS BENEATH LEADING EDGE OF STRONG UPPER FORCING...AND
SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE IN THIS AREA COULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT MAY ALSO ALLOW STRONGER GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE.

...EAST TX...NRN LA...SRN AR...WEST TN...NWRN MS...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AS STRONGER VERTICAL MOTION FIELD OVERSPREADS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING AT MID LEVELS WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THIS AREA WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  STORMS
IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE IN AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...WITH SUPERCELLS AND A
FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 
SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA AND INTO PARTS OF TN/MS.  ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE WILL ALSO LIKELY RACE THROUGH THIS AREA WITH THE MAIN
COLD FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. 
PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS THE
LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SUGGEST THAT DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY COMPENSATE FOR WEAK CAPE VALUES.

...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER
MO/IL LATE TONIGHT.  VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF
LOW MAY TRANSPORT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO REGION FOR SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOCUSED ASCENT IN VICINITY OF LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT MAY RESULT IN A NARROW LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SERN MO/SRN IL/SERN IND...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.

..HART.. 12/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.