[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061246
SWODY1
SPC AC 061245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
CLL 10 E ACT 10 SSE DAL 25 W PRX 40 N DYR 50 SSE PAH 40 NNE TUP 55 W
JAN 30 WSW POE 20 NW CLL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
PSX 45 ENE COT 55 WNW COT 25 NNW DRT 55 W SJT 70 WSW SPS ADM 20 ENE
FSM 35 E UNO 35 SW HUF 55 WNW LUK 45 SW LEX 35 NNE MEI 15 S 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD
...CONT... 20 SE ELP 30 ENE ALM 50 NNW CDS 35 SSE P28 35 ENE MKC 30
SE MLI 10 N SBN TOL 30 NW ZZV 10 NNE 5I3 10 N SEM 35 SSW MOB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NE TX ACROSS SRN/ERN AR AND
NRN LA TO NW MS AND WRN TN....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD TO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA....

...TX TO MS VALLEY AREA...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NW MEXICO AND SE
AZ WILL EJECT ENEWD TO OK BY LATE TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS OK/SRN
KS...AND THIS DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TO
CENTRAL/NRN ILLINOIS BY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW FROM THE SRN
PLAINS TODAY TO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE GREATER
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NRN/NWRN EDGE OF THE
SURFACE WARM SECTOR WHERE WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCATED IN PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...ROUGHLY
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM LFK AND TYR NEWD TO ABOUT MEM.

LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SOUNDINGS CONFIRM BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF
68-70 F...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM...AND GENERALLY WEAK
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS E TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.  WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITHIN A
DEEP MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME /FROM NRN MEXICO NEWD TO THE MS
RIVER/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY
ACROSS TX...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS LA/SRN AR/NW MS
MAY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S.  SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY NEAR PEAK VALUES BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. 
THEREFORE...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT INCREASE MUCH TODAY OVER THAT
ALREADY NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY /MUCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG/.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC BAND ACROSS SRN NM TO
MOVE INTO W CENTRAL TX AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NW TX AND OK TO MO/IL
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW.  SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE INVOF THE DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT ACROSS TX DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE STRONGER
FORCING ENCOUNTERS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.  THE SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SWD INTO THE RICHER MOISTURE AND GREATER
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN EXTENT LIMITED BY A SUBSTANTIAL CAP OVER S
TX.  THE INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TX MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL
BE COOLER IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...THE
EXPECTED LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 40-70 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
FROM E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER E...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE NW
EDGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR/INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM NE TX
ACROSS NW LA/SE AR AND NW MS LATER TODAY.  THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH A SOMEWHAT GREATER TORNADO THREAT
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SE TX/LA/MS...BUT A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND NO OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THAT ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED.

..THOMPSON.. 12/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.