[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060600
SWODY1
SPC AC 060558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
TPL ACT 10 SSE DAL 25 W PRX 20 SE PAH 45 NE MKL 25 ENE TUP 40 NE HEZ
45 WSW POE 35 ESE TPL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
PSX 10 NW CRP 40 ENE LRD 25 NW LRD 20 E DRT 55 W SJT 70 WSW SPS ADM
20 ENE FSM 35 E UNO 35 SW HUF 55 WNW LUK 45 SW LEX 35 NNE MEI 15 S
7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 25 ESE HOB
50 NNW CDS 35 SSE P28 30 NNW SZL 40 WSW PIA 10 N SBN TOL 30 NW ZZV
15 E HTS 20 NE MGM 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN TX / FAR SERN OK /
PARTS OF AR / WRN TN / NWRN MS / NRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. / NWRN MEXICO WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WHILE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT. THIS TROUGH -- ACCOMPANIED BY 85 TO 90 KT JET --
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE
DAY 1 PERIOD.

AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE...WITH
MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE SURFACE WARM FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY BY THE START OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MORE
SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT -- AT THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST GULF AIRMASS -- NOW
MOVING NWD ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AS WELL AS A COLD
FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS TX / OK THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THEN ON TOWARD THE MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS...
MAIN BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
MOVING EWD INTO THE ERN CONUS ATTM.  HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL U.S. EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.  SURFACE LOW NOW OVER FAR SERN CO / SWRN KS
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN / MOVE TOWARD S CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
DAY.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD CENTRAL
OK / CENTRAL TX...WHILE WARM FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST GULF
AIRMASS /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ RETREATS NWD ACROSS SERN OK
/ SRN AR / THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

THOUGH HEATING SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDINESS / LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...UVV AND MID-LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH
SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION -- PARTICULARLY S OF WARM
FRONT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE / INTENSIFY
ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT AND PERHAPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS PARTS OF E TX / SERN OK / AR / LA...AS WELL AS ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK / CENTRAL TX.  

VERY STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW -- IN THE 65 TO 85 KT RANGE -- ABOVE
STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO
A LARGE PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL CONUS BY AFTERNOON.  THIS SUGGESTS
THAT ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WILL ENCOUNTER
SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO BECOME SEVERE / SUPERCELLULAR.  ALONG WITH A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING / SHEAR AND
MOIST LOWER TROPOSPHERE FAVOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST NEAR
RETREATING WARM FRONT SWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND VICINITY.  

WITH TIME...LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY.
 INCREASING LINEAR CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR AN EVOLUTION TOWARD A
SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT.  VERY STRONG /60-PLUS/
WINDS AT LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD /
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS ALONG SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 12/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.