[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051945
SWODY1
SPC AC 051943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE VBG 30 NE OXR
TRM BLH GBN 40 WNW TUS 50 SSW TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 25 NNE CLL 20 NNE
TYR 45 ESE FSM UNO MVN SDF LEX 25 NNW TRI AVL ATL 15 NNE TOI 25 S
CEW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...E TX INTO THE TN VALLEY...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY
LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
ESTABLISHED FROM ERN TX INTO THE TN VALLEY IS SUPPORTING LARGE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE CNTRL LOW PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST. RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING
FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT JUST ONSHORE OF THE TX/LA COASTS...NWD
ALONG LLJ AXIS INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY
WHERE GREATEST INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IS OCCURRING.

AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...EXPECT WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INHERENT TSTM THREAT
TO DEVELOP AS FAR NE AS THE OH VALLEY ALONG LLJ AXIS. WHILE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT ALONG THE
GULF COAST...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO
SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.

...SRN CA/AZ...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD JUST
OFF THE SRN CA COAST. LDS DATA INDICATE PERSISTENT TSTM ACTIVITY SE
OF THIS FEATURE WITHIN REGION OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE
MORE EWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT THIS REGION OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING TO SPREAD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
CA AND AZ.

..MEAD.. 12/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.