[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051616
SWODY1
SPC AC 051614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE VBG 30 NE OXR
TRM BLH GBN 40 WNW TUS 50 SSW TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX LFK GGG 50
NNW HOT UNO MVN SDF LEX 25 NNW TRI AVL ATL MGM PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EAST TX INTO TN VALLEY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SHOW VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OK/KS AND INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY BY MON MORNING.  STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS TX/LA...TRANSPORTING GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  STRONG
UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION HAVE GENERATED A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FROM EAST TX INTO MO/AR/MS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTO KY/TN/GA
OVERNIGHT.  RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF PRECIP SHIELD MAY ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE
ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. 
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS
PARTS OF LA/MS BY LATE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING AND LIMITED
FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD SUPPRESS ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION IN THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

...CA/AZ...
POTENT UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
THE MEXICAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POCKET OF COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

..HART.. 12/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.