[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041521
SWODY1
SPC AC 041520

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT CLL AUS 10
SE DRT 20 SSE P07 MAF CDS FSI TXK ELD JAN PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVC 30 SE SAD 45 N
TUS 25 E PHX 45 SE PRC INW GUP 25 NE GNT ABQ 45 SE ONM SVC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF LOW OFF THE CA COAST.  THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...INTO NM/WEST
TX BY SUNDAY MORNING.  INCREASING UVVS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY OVER WEST
TX...SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TX LATE TONIGHT.  MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  HOWEVER...POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE MAY
ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION.  INCREASING
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST
AFTER 12Z ACROSS MUCH OF OK.  HOWEVER... THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW.

...LA/MS/AL...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL OFF THE LA
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD IN
ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD...PREVENTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

...NM/AZ...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM.  STRONG UPWARD
FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...ALONG WITH
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.

..HART.. 12/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.