[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041952
SWODY1
SPC AC 041950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST SAT DEC 04 2004

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE GLS 45 SSE CLL
AUS 10 SE DRT 20 SSE P07 MAF 10 E CDS 30 ESE FSI TXK ELD 25 SSE MEI
15 ESE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVC 35 NNE FHU 30 W
TUS 15 ENE GBN 35 SSE PRC INW GUP 25 NE GNT ABQ 45 SE ONM SVC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO
TRANSLATE EWD ONTO THE SRN CA COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF
LARGE-SCALE FORCING SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO VALLEY. WITH
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FAIRLY BROAD SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. IN
ADDITION TO PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /VIA
WAA/...THIS MASS ADJUSTMENT WILL ENHANCE NWD/NEWD MOISTURE RETURN
AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AND PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH
NWD EXTENT FROM THE GULF COAST. NONETHELESS...THIS WEAK INSTABILITY
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST.

...AZ/NM...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...OPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS BECOMING
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION SHIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL AZ. POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /I.E. -20 TO -22 C
AT 500 MB/ AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHIFT EWD INTO REGION.

..MEAD.. 12/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.