[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041300
SWODY1
SPC AC 041258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GLS 50 N PSX
15 SW SAT 40 SSE JCT 20 N JCT 40 WNW MWL 15 W END 15 E PNC 25 E TUL
45 NW TXK 40 W ELD 35 NNW JAN 20 W MEI 40 N MOB 35 S MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW TCS 30 SE SAD
45 N TUS 25 E PHX 45 SE PRC 25 SW INW 30 WSW GUP 25 NE GNT 10 SE ABQ
45 SE ONM 30 SSW TCS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN CONVECTIVE THREATS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME.  WITHIN THIS SRN BRANCH...A MID LEVEL
LOW NOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS AZ/NM TO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.  A BROAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN AZ/NM/SW TX PRECEDES THE
SRN CA TROUGH...WHILE MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
CONFINED TO THE NW GULF COAST. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WAA PATTERN
FROM CENTRAL AND ERN OK AND TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE
MINIMAL INSTABILITY IN OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST
ACROSS THIS AREA.

FARTHER W...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS AZ/NM...WHILE THE
MID LEVELS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST.  THE 12Z TUS SOUNDING
SUGGESTS THAT WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTENING LATER TODAY IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...GIVEN
OBSERVED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL CONVECTION ALONG THE PATH OF THE EJECTING
MID LEVEL TROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE RIM COUNTRY OF ERN AZ INTO
NM...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

..THOMPSON.. 12/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.