[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040452
SWODY1
SPC AC 040450

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GLS 50 N PSX
35 S AUS 25 SSE JCT 25 NNW SJT 30 WSW CDS 25 WNW GAG 35 SSW ICT 35
SW JLN 40 SSE PGO 35 SW PBF 25 W CBM 0A8 30 WSW TOI PFN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SW OF SBA NEAR 33N 123W IS FORECAST TO
 MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN CA BEFORE MINORING OUT AND MOVING INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH S OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL DIVE SEWD AND AMPLIFY ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST BY 05/12Z. MODELS SEEM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO WITH THE ETA MODEL PLACING A SERIES OF
LOWS ALONG THE PLAINS. WOULD SUSPECT THAT THE MAIN LOW WOULD BE
LOCATED OVER SERN CO/WRN OK PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX.  THUS... IF THERE IS ONE
AREA WHERE THE MODEL ENSEMBLE DIFFERS IS THE ONSET OF
UVVS/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.

ONE PERSISTENT FEATURE IS THE SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM.  BAND OF 100 TO 130 KT WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM NWRN MEXICO
EWD AND NEWD INTO TX BY AFTN THEN INTO ERN OK BY 05/12Z.  MODELS
ALSO BRING A MID LEVEL BRANCH ACROSS S CENTRAL TX INTO WRN LA
SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS PLACES AREAS NRN TX AND OK INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGIONS TO ENHANCE ASCENT.  SLY TO SWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OF 30-45 KT ACROSS W CENTRAL TX INTO OK IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS ENHANCING ELEVATED
CONVECTION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 05/06Z IN THE VICINITY
OF 850 MB WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX. MODELS ALSO GENERATE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES OF 6.5C/KM DUE TO WELL MIXED AIR OFF THE SRN
PLATEAU WHICH WOULD PLAY AS A BOUNDARY PROMOTING LIFT FOR THE
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

MAIN WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STAY FROM CENTRAL TX EWD
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL LA SEWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL FL.  S OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S.  THUS...WOULD
EXPECT A BIT MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET.  LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
BOTH AREAS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

..MCCARTHY.. 12/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.