[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311620
SWODY1
SPC AC 311616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
YKN FSD 15 WNW MKT 35 N MCW MCW 45 SW FOD 35 E GRI 15 SE BUB 35 SW
YKN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 25 S PSM
...CONT... 35 SE AUG 30 S HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 70 ESE PHX
15 NW PRC 30 W GCN 40 NE GCN 55 WNW GUP 25 SE FMN 45 NW 4FC 45 NNW
MHN 20 SE PIR 25 SW FAR 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 ESE ANJ 20 SE ESC
15 NW MLI 30 N TOP 25 W P28 55 WNW ABI 10 ENE JCT 30 SSE CLL 30 W
MCB 25 E MEI 50 N HKY 15 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 55 ENE S80
20 ENE BNO 55 E MHS 40 NE ACV 20 SE OTH 25 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
EASTERN NEB INTO PARTS OF MN/IA...

...NEB/SD/MN/IA...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF STRONGER WESTERLIES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.  WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER SD WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO MN/IA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TRAILING BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NEB.  STRONG HEATING
IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT TO ELIMINATE THE
CAP.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VERY LITTLE LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRONG STORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THOSE STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.

...AZ/NM/TX...
LARGE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TODAY...WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -12 OVER PARTS OF AZ/NM
AND WEST TX.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF THIS REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. DESPITE
RATHER WEAK SHEAR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF HAIL IN
STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 08/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.