[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311957
SWODY1
SPC AC 311954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
YKN FSD 15 WNW MKT 35 N MCW MCW 45 SW FOD 35 E GRI 15 SE BUB 35 SW
YKN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 70 ESE PHX
15 NW PRC 20 W GCN 30 ENE CNY 45 SW LAR 35 NNE AIA 20 SE PIR 25 SW
FAR 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 ESE ANJ 20 SE ESC 15 NW MLI 30 N TOP 25
W P28 50 NNW ABI 50 S BWD 30 SSE CLL 30 W MCB 25 E MEI 50 N HKY 15
SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 55 ENE S80
60 WNW BOI 55 E MHS 40 NE ACV 20 SE OTH 25 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB INTO SRN MN...

...MID MO VALLEY...

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STEEPENED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PER LATEST CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG SFC BOUNDARY FROM CUSTER COUNTY TO GARFIELD COUNTY IN NEB. 
THESE THERMALS SHOULD STRUGGLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE
ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND HEIGHT RISES.  HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN AIRMASS THAT IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE...SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000J/KG...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LITTLE MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE OR MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER DARK.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

...SWRN TX...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND TO SOME EXTENT VIS IMAGERY...DEPICTS A
WEAK UPPER VORT JUST SW OF MAF IN SWRN TX.  A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM SE-N OF THIS FEATURE.  GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...ADDITIONAL AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION WILL PROVE DIFFICULT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS UPPER
VORT.  A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS BUT SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
REGION.

..DARROW.. 08/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.