[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301624
SWODY1
SPC AC 301620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2004

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
PSM 40 SSW ALB 35 SSW UCA 25 N UCA 35 NNW BML 10 NE HUL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
ECG 55 NNE RWI 25 SE LYH 15 SSW SHD 40 WSW DCA 25 SE DCA 25 ENE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W INL 15 S STC 40
E YKN 35 E OLU 15 E STJ 30 S OJC 25 S END 15 ENE SPS 40 W BWD 20 SSE
AUS 50 W HOU BPT 35 WNW LFT 30 E HEZ 35 NW LUL 15 NE MEI 35 W TCL 20
WNW MSL 30 E BWG 25 ENE ERI ...CONT... 35 WSW FHU 35 NE INW 25 SSW
ASE 20 NW CYS 45 WSW RAP 15 WNW REJ 35 WSW GDV 40 WSW GGW 40 NNW
HVR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA/MD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...

...NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS ROTATING INTO QUEBEC THIS MORNING...WITH
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MINIMAL CLOUDS FROM
EASTERN PA ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHERN MAINE.  THIS ZONE SHOULD HEAT RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG.  RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEUTRAL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL TODAY. HOWEVER...MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND 25-30 KNOT 500MB FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

...VA/MD...
REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER OF GASTON IS OVER CENTRAL NC...AND SHOULD
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AKQ/LWX VAD
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT RATHER NARROW AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
EXISTS IN VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE BAND OVER SOUTHERN VA.  ISOLATED
CELLS IN THIS BAND MAY POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON...GIVEN STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID 70S.  THREAT MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL VA BY
EVENING.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE
ACROSS PARTS OF TX/NM/CO TODAY...WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
EXPECTED.  CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE MAY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER ISOLATED STORMS
FORMING ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THESE STORMS MAY POSE A RISK OF
HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.

..HART/GUYER.. 08/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.